Three Predictions For Kenya In 2014 And Beyond

In a world that is inundated by turmoil, predicting even a week ahead is tough guess work, leave alone a whole year. However, I think these will be the major predictions for Kenya in 2014 and beyond.

1. More people will be better off.

Even as the political infighting continues, many people forget that there is a quiet transformation going on. Major road networks are being constructed. Rural homes are being connected to electricity, and it is becoming easier to set up a business. However, major bottlenecks still remain in this journey. For one, corruption is still a major hurdle, and the judiciary is showing signs of retrogression, rather than progress. The recent war of words between the JSC and Gladys Boss Shollei shows an institution that is disjointed, and not reading from the same script. Equally, the ICC remains a major distraction for the President and his deputy, and one that could take their energies way from solving the most pressing issues facing Kenyans. If these monumental hurdles are surmounted, then more people will be better off.

2. There will be a flourishing start- up culture.

More start-ups are being created, which is likely to impact the economy in the long run. The creation of incubation hubs such as Nailab and Ihub will likely see a growth in this sector. While large businesses no doubt churn out billions in profits, they are not creating enough jobs. This leaves the SMEs and the start-ups as the best hope for economic growth. However, the start-ups will have to tailor their business models around solving the problems most pertinent to Kenya (and Africa), rather than just creating fancy products for the sake of it.

3. There will be more women and youth participating in the economy.

A recent gender report by the world economic forum shows that Kenya is somewhere in the middle of the charts in attaining gender economic parity between men and women. To strengthen this position and improve further, more women and youth will need to be involved in politics and the economy in the coming years. In hindsight, the coming year will still be about the ICC, but also about the beginning of the Kenyan economic takeoff.